The Unlikely Superstate: Why Conservatives May Soon Champion a United States of Europe

For decades, the concept of a “United States of Europe” has been the cherished dream of the political left and the ultimate nightmare for the right. It conjured images of a bureaucratic superstate erasing national identity, sovereignty, and tradition—everything conservatives hold dear. Yet, in a geopolitical twist worthy of a political thriller, the tables are turning. A powerful new argument is emerging from the most unexpected corners: that a deeply integrated, federalized Europe is not a threat to conservative values, but the only way to preserve them in a world dominated by giants.

The stark reality is that the 21st-century world stage has room for only a few protagonists. The United States, once Europe’s steadfast protector, is increasingly looking inward, while China rises as a systemic rival with ambitions that span the globe. Caught between these two titans, the nations of Europe, powerful in their own right, risk becoming mere spectators—or worse, the playing field for the ambitions of others. This existential challenge is forcing a radical and pragmatic rethink, pushing the idea of a unified continent from the fringes of political debate to the center of strategic necessity. For investors, business leaders, and financial professionals, this isn’t just an academic discussion; it’s a potential paradigm shift that could reshape the global economy, redefine capital flows, and create unprecedented risks and opportunities across the stock market.

The Cracks in the Transatlantic Shield

For over 70 years, the bedrock of European security has been the transatlantic alliance, underpinned by the military might of the United States. This security guarantee allowed European nations to focus on economic prosperity and social development, effectively outsourcing a significant portion of their defense. That era is rapidly coming to an end. The “America First” doctrine, vocalized most strongly by Donald Trump but reflecting a broader shift in American public opinion, has sent shockwaves across the Atlantic. The once-unthinkable prospect of the U.S. reducing its commitment to NATO is now a mainstream political consideration.

As the original article from the Financial Times highlights, this potential abandonment leaves Europe in a precarious position, described as a “herbivore in a world of carnivores.” Without the American shield, the continent’s internal divisions and relative military weakness are laid bare. Individual nations, even economic powerhouses like Germany and France, lack the scale to independently deter aggression or project power on a global scale. The war in Ukraine has served as a brutal wake-up call, demonstrating that peace in Europe is not a given and that hard power remains a crucial currency in international relations.

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Facing the Dragon: The Economic and Technological Challenge

The challenge is not just military. On the other side of the globe, China has emerged as a formidable economic, technological, and ideological competitor. Beijing’s state-led industrial policy has allowed it to dominate key sectors, from renewable energy to critical raw materials. It is pouring immense resources into next-generation technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing, areas where Europe risks falling behind.

Individually, European countries struggle to compete with China’s scale and strategic coordination. A fragmented market of 27 different regulatory systems and industrial policies is no match for a unified national strategy executed by a global superpower. This is particularly true in the realm of financial technology and digital infrastructure, where scale is everything. To foster homegrown tech giants that can rival those from the U.S. and China, Europe needs a single, deep market for capital, talent, and data.

The following table illustrates the stark reality of Europe’s position when its nations act alone versus as a unified bloc, compared to the established superpowers.

Note: Data is approximate and compiled from various public sources for illustrative purposes.

The New Conservative Realism: Pooling Sovereignty to Project Power

Faced with this two-front challenge, the traditional conservative argument for national sovereignty begins to look less like a principled stand and more like a recipe for irrelevance. The new, pragmatic argument gaining traction is that true sovereignty in the 21st century is not about legal independence but about the capacity to act and shape one’s own destiny. A nation that cannot defend its borders, secure its supply chains, or compete in the global economy is not truly sovereign, regardless of what its constitution says.

From this perspective, pooling sovereignty within a more powerful European Union is no longer a loss, but a strategic investment. It is the only viable path to achieving what French President Emmanuel Macron has termed “strategic autonomy.” This would involve three critical pillars:

1. A Unified Defence Force: Moving beyond fragmented national armies to create a credible, integrated European military capable of defending the continent’s interests with or without American help. This would require immense investment, joint procurement, and a unified command structure.
2. A Cohesive Foreign Policy: Speaking with a single, powerful voice on the world stage, enabling Europe to negotiate with the U.S. and China as an equal partner rather than a collection of smaller states to be played against one another.
3. A Pan-European Industrial Strategy: Mobilizing the continent’s resources to lead in key technological fields. This means breaking down national barriers to create true European champions in sectors like fintech, AI, and green energy.

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The Financial Foundation: A Capital Markets Union is Non-Negotiable

None of this ambitious vision is possible without a powerful engine to fund it: a deep, liquid, and unified European capital market. For too long, Europe’s financial system has been fragmented along national lines. Its banking sector is large, but its stock markets are relatively small and disconnected compared to the U.S. This makes it difficult for innovative companies to access the scale-up capital they need, forcing many of Europe’s brightest startups to look across the Atlantic for investing and growth opportunities.

A true Capital Markets Union (CMU) would be the cornerstone of a more powerful Europe. By harmonizing regulations for everything from corporate bankruptcy to securities trading, a CMU would:

• Unlock Trillions in Private Capital: Channel Europe’s vast pool of savings into productive investments in technology, infrastructure, and defense.
• Strengthen the Euro: Enhance the international role of the euro as a reserve currency, providing a counterbalance to the dominance of the U.S. dollar.
• Foster Innovation: Create a competitive environment for financial technology firms to develop pan-European products, potentially even creating a regulated and integrated market for digital assets based on blockchain technology.

This financial integration is not merely a technical exercise in economics; it is a prerequisite for geopolitical power. A Europe that can finance its own defense, fund its own tech champions, and offer a deep, stable market for global investors is a Europe that can stand on its own two feet.

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A Defining Moment for a Continent

The notion of European conservatives advocating for a federal superstate remains a jarring one. It represents a profound break with a century of political tradition. But as the saying goes, “When the facts change, I change my mind.” The facts on the ground have changed irrevocably. The comfortable post-Cold War order is gone, replaced by a much more competitive and dangerous multipolar world.

The path to a “United States of Europe” is fraught with immense political and practical obstacles. It will require a level of unity and shared purpose that has often eluded the continent. But for the first time, the push may not come from idealistic federalists, but from hard-nosed realists who see it as the only choice left. For businesses and investors, the message is clear: do not underestimate Europe’s capacity for transformation when faced with an existential crisis. The political and economic landscape of the next decade could look radically different, and the foundations for that change are being laid today.